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Legon Cities vs Nsoatreman — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
CANC
15:00
Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
4/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Accra Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Legon Cities54%
×Draw27%
Nsoatreman19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.44
Nsoatreman
0.73

Legon Cities creates 97% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 45 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.24
Nsoatreman
0.58

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.88
Nsoatreman
1.64

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Nsoatreman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
81%
Legon Cities or Nsoatreman
73%
Draw or Nsoatreman
46%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
27%
Nsoatreman wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
76%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
42%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
18%
Nsoatreman 1+ goals
52%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
17%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
74%
Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Nsoatreman away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Nsoatreman defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nsoatreman attack 0.58 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Legon Cities scores more
54%
level
27%
Nsoatreman scores more
19%

Legon Cities at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legon Cities face Nsoatreman (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Legon Cities hosting Nsoatreman. Match starts April 15, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Legon Cities host Nsoatreman at Accra Sports Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.