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Nsoatreman vs King Faisal — Cup 2022

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
King Faisal
King Faisaladvanced
K. Nana 55'
S. Ofori 9' (pen)
S. Antwi 63'
B. Frimpong 45'
Y. Baba 36'
5/14/2023CupCup · Semi-finalsDr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nsoatreman42%
×Draw24%
King Faisal34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.60
King Faisal
1.40

Nsoatreman creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.80
King Faisal
2.00

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.80
King Faisal
1.40

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
66%
Nsoatreman or King Faisal
76%
Draw or King Faisal
58%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
21%
King Faisal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
80%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
47%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
22%
King Faisal 1+ goals
75%
King Faisal 2+ goals
41%
King Faisal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
56%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

King Faisal away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.80 + King Faisal defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

King Faisal attack 2.00 + Nsoatreman defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
42%
level
24%
King Faisal scores more
34%

Nsoatreman at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
S. OforiPenalty
36'
Y. Baba
45'
B. Frimpong
55'
K. Nana
63'
S. Antwi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs King Faisal

King Faisal beat Nsoatreman 3-2 in Cup on May 14, 2023.

Goals: S. Ofori (9' pen), Y. Baba (36'), B. Frimpong (45'), K. Nana (55'), S. Antwi (63').

The match was played at Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex in Abrankese.