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King Faisal vs Nsoatreman — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
G. Asiamah 82'
J. Gordon 79'
1/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

King Faisal53%
×Draw27%
Nsoatreman20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.41
Nsoatreman
0.75

King Faisal creates 88% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.18
Nsoatreman
0.58

allows per match

King Faisal
0.92
Nsoatreman
1.64

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Nsoatreman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
80%
King Faisal or Nsoatreman
73%
Draw or Nsoatreman
47%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
26%
Nsoatreman wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
76%
King Faisal 2+ goals
41%
King Faisal 3+ goals
17%
Nsoatreman 1+ goals
53%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
17%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
73%
Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Nsoatreman away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.18 + Nsoatreman defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nsoatreman attack 0.58 + King Faisal defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

King Faisal scores more
53%
level
27%
Nsoatreman scores more
20%

King Faisal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Boateng
67'
W. Fuseini← W. Fuseini
71'
A. Tetteh← P. Rockson
71'
G. Osei← G. Osei
72'
74'
79'
J. Gordon
82'
G. Asiamah
85'
M. Antwi← M. Antwi
85'
S. Musa← S. Musa
86'
J. Dwomoh← J. Dwomoh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Nsoatreman

King Faisal beat Nsoatreman 2-0 in Premier League on January 1, 2023.

Goals: J. Gordon (79'), G. Asiamah (82').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.