Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nsoatreman vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karela
Karela
1/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman53%
×Draw30%
Karela17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.25
Karela
0.56

Nsoatreman creates 123% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 109 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Karela
1.31

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
83%
Nsoatreman or Karela
70%
Draw or Karela
47%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
25%
Karela wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
71%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
36%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
13%
Karela 1+ goals
43%
Karela 2+ goals
11%
Karela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
76%
Karela (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Karela attack 0.61 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
53%
level
30%
Karela scores more
17%

Nsoatreman at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs Karela

Nsoatreman beat Karela 1-0 in Premier League on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.