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Karela vs Nsoatreman — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
CANC
00:00
Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
6/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Naa Sheriga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Karela58%
×Draw26%
Nsoatreman16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.52
Nsoatreman
0.66

Karela creates 130% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Nsoatreman
0.58

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Nsoatreman
1.64

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Nsoatreman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karela or draw
84%
Karela or Nsoatreman
74%
Draw or Nsoatreman
42%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
31%
Nsoatreman wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
78%
Karela 2+ goals
45%
Karela 3+ goals
20%
Nsoatreman 1+ goals
48%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
14%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
78%
Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Nsoatreman away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Nsoatreman defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nsoatreman attack 0.58 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Karela scores more
58%
level
26%
Nsoatreman scores more
16%

Karela at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Karela host Nsoatreman

June 7, 2025: Karela take on Nsoatreman in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Karela host Nsoatreman at Naa Sheriga Sports Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.