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Nsoatreman vs Great Olympics — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
K. Nana 34'
B. Mahamah 11'
A. Ayikwei 10'
2/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman53%
×Draw30%
Great Olympics17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.24
Great Olympics
0.56

Nsoatreman creates 121% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 76 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Great Olympics
0.61

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Great Olympics
1.28

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
83%
Nsoatreman or Great Olympics
70%
Draw or Great Olympics
47%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
25%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
71%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
35%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
13%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
43%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
11%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
76%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.28 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Great Olympics defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
53%
level
30%
Great Olympics scores more
17%

Nsoatreman at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Ayikwei
11'
B. Mahamah
34'
K. Nana
55'
R. Akrofi← R. Akrofi
80'
M. Antwi← M. Antwi
85'
B. Kpodo← B. Kpodo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs Great Olympics

Nsoatreman beat Great Olympics 2-1 in Premier League on February 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Ayikwei (10'), B. Mahamah (11'), K. Nana (34').

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.