Nsingizini Hotspurs 2–0 Moneni Pirates

Nsingizini Hotspurs

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Moneni Pirates

10/5/2024

Premier League · Round 4King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs49%

×Draw28%

Moneni Pirates23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nsingizini HotspursExpected goals in this matchMoneni Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.83

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.35

Moneni Pirates

0.83

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 63% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 83 away

1.36

creates per match

1.04

0.62

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.36

Moneni Pirates

1.04

allows per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

0.62

Moneni Pirates

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsingizini Hotspurs ↓

Moneni Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nsingizini Hotspurs or draw

77%

Nsingizini Hotspurs or Moneni Pirates

72%

Draw or Moneni Pirates

51%

Winning margin

Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+

23%

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals

74%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals

39%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals

15%

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

56%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

20%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)

68%

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsingizini Hotspurs at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.62 · 53 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.36 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more

49%

level

28%

Moneni Pirates scores more

23%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff