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Moneni Pirates vs Nsingizini Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Nsingizini Hotspurs
3/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Moneni Pirates26%
×Draw30%
Nsingizini Hotspurs44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moneni Pirates
0.83
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.18

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 42% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 54 away

creates per match

Moneni Pirates
1.00
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.33

allows per match

Moneni Pirates
1.02
Nsingizini Hotspurs
0.67

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par
Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Nsingizini Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw
56%
Moneni Pirates or Nsingizini Hotspurs
70%
Draw or Nsingizini Hotspurs
74%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
8%
Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
56%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
20%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
5%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals
69%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals
33%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
37%
Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.33 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more
26%
level
30%
Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more
44%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Moneni Pirates 0–0 Nsingizini Hotspurs

Moneni Pirates and Nsingizini Hotspurs drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.