NSÍ II 2–0 Hoyvík: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

NSÍ II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hoyvík

3/9/2024

1. Deild · Round 1við Løkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

NSÍ II53%

×Draw20%

Hoyvík27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NSÍ IIExpected goals in this matchHoyvík

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.67

NSÍ II

2.37

Hoyvík

1.67

NSÍ II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 48 away

1.97

creates per match

1.31

2.02

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

NSÍ II

1.97

Hoyvík

1.31

allows per match

NSÍ II

2.02

Hoyvík

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NSÍ II+0.00on par

Hoyvík+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSÍ II ↓

Hoyvík →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

NSÍ II or draw

73%

NSÍ II or Hoyvík

80%

Draw or Hoyvík

47%

Winning margin

NSÍ II wins by 2+

33%

Hoyvík wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NSÍ II 1+ goals

91%

NSÍ II 2+ goals

68%

NSÍ II 3+ goals

42%

Hoyvík 1+ goals

81%

Hoyvík 2+ goals

50%

Hoyvík 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

NSÍ II (draw refunded)

66%

Hoyvík (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSÍ II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.02 · 89 matches

Hoyvík away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.77 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSÍ II attack 1.97 + Hoyvík defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.37

Hoyvík attack 1.31 + NSÍ II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NSÍ II scores more

53%

level

20%

Hoyvík scores more

27%

NSÍ II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "NSÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff