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Hoyvík vs NSÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

Hoyvík
Hoyvík
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NSÍ II
NSÍ II
5/24/20241. Deild1. Deild · Round 11Hoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hoyvík32%
×Draw21%
NSÍ II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoyvík
1.79
NSÍ II
2.20

NSÍ II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hoyvík
1.41
NSÍ II
1.94

allows per match

Hoyvík
2.45
NSÍ II
2.18

finishing

Hoyvík+0.00on par
NSÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoyvík ↓

NSÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hoyvík or draw
53%
Hoyvík or NSÍ II
79%
Draw or NSÍ II
68%

Winning margin

Hoyvík wins by 2+
16%
NSÍ II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hoyvík 1+ goals
83%
Hoyvík 2+ goals
53%
Hoyvík 3+ goals
26%
NSÍ II 1+ goals
89%
NSÍ II 2+ goals
64%
NSÍ II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Hoyvík (draw refunded)
40%
NSÍ II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoyvík at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.45 · 49 matches

NSÍ II away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoyvík attack 1.41 + NSÍ II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

NSÍ II attack 1.94 + Hoyvík defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hoyvík scores more
32%
level
21%
NSÍ II scores more
47%

NSÍ II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NSÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Hoyvík 1–2 NSÍ II

NSÍ II beat Hoyvík 2-1 in 1. Deild on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.