NŠ Drava 2–2 Gorica: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

NŠ Drava

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Gorica

V. Miljanić 76', 29'

E. Velikonja 40' (pen), 19'

5/8/2022

2. SNL · Round 28Mestni Štadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

NŠ Drava20%

×Draw22%

Gorica58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NŠ DravaExpected goals in this matchGorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.95

NŠ Drava

1.04

Gorica

1.95

Gorica creates 88% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 71 away

1.10

creates per match

1.68

2.22

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

NŠ Drava

1.10

Gorica

1.68

allows per match

NŠ Drava

2.22

Gorica

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw

42%

NŠ Drava or Gorica

78%

Draw or Gorica

80%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+

7%

Gorica wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals

65%

NŠ Drava 2+ goals

28%

NŠ Drava 3+ goals

9%

Gorica 1+ goals

86%

Gorica 2+ goals

58%

Gorica 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)

25%

Gorica (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.22 · 50 matches

Gorica away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Gorica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gorica attack 1.68 + NŠ Drava defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NŠ Drava scores more

20%

level

22%

Gorica scores more

58%

Gorica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

E. Velikonja

29'

V. Miljanić

40'

E. VelikonjaPenalty

42'

N. Erhatič← R. Nanitelamio

64'

A. Ahmetaj← R. Frešer

64'

L. Vekić← L. Marinič

64'

Ž. Leban← M. Zukanović

72'

N. Mršič← L. Čeh

76'

V. Miljanić

78'

M. Laraspata← A. Hodžić

78'

M. Žejen← A. Marinič

NŠ

Gorica

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: F. Fridl

42'▲N. Erhatič←▼R. Nanitelamio

72'▲N. Mršič←▼L. Čeh

NŠ Drava substitutes

ErhatičMršičHočevarŠtornikTrajkovski

Manager: M. Srebrnič

64'▲A. Ahmetaj←▼R. Frešer

64'▲L. Vekić←▼L. Marinič

64'▲Ž. Leban←▼M. Zukanović

78'▲M. Laraspata←▼A. Hodžić

78'▲M. Žejen←▼A. Marinič

Gorica substitutes

AhmetajVekićLebanLaraspataŽejenKrajncHrkaUrbančičLikar