Gorica 0–1 NŠ Drava: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Gorica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

NŠ Drava

A. Kahrimanovic 90' (pen)

12/5/2021

2. SNL · Round 13Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Gorica58%

×Draw21%

NŠ Drava21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoricaExpected goals in this matchNŠ Drava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.13

Gorica

2.01

NŠ Drava

1.13

Gorica creates 78% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

1.71

creates per match

1.10

1.16

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Gorica

1.71

NŠ Drava

1.10

allows per match

Gorica

1.16

NŠ Drava

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorica+0.00on par

NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorica ↓

NŠ Drava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gorica or draw

79%

Gorica or NŠ Drava

79%

Draw or NŠ Drava

42%

Winning margin

Gorica wins by 2+

34%

NŠ Drava wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gorica 1+ goals

87%

Gorica 2+ goals

59%

Gorica 3+ goals

32%

NŠ Drava 1+ goals

68%

NŠ Drava 2+ goals

31%

NŠ Drava 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gorica (draw refunded)

73%

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorica at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

NŠ Drava away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorica attack 1.71 + NŠ Drava defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.01

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Gorica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gorica scores more

58%

level

21%

NŠ Drava scores more

21%

Gorica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Đuran← S. Kliton

65'

P. Pivko← M. Ribič

68'

M. Hasanbegović← L. Marinič

68'

R. Frešer← A. Ahmetaj

82'

L. Baruca← L. Vekić

82'

R. Prodanović← Ž. Leban

82'

L. Čeh← M. Penič

90+3'

V. Bolcar← P. Pivko

90'

A. KahrimanovicPenalty

Gorica

NŠ

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Srebrnič

68'▲M. Hasanbegović←▼L. Marinič

68'▲R. Frešer←▼A. Ahmetaj

82'▲L. Baruca←▼L. Vekić

82'▲R. Prodanović←▼Ž. Leban

Gorica substitutes

HasanbegovićFrešerBarucaProdanovićRadikonŽejenFongang

Manager: A. Kvas

46'▲N. Đuran←▼S. Kliton

65'▲P. Pivko←▼M. Ribič

82'▲L. Čeh←▼M. Penič

90+3'▲V. Bolcar←▼P. Pivko

NŠ Drava substitutes

ĐuranPivkoČehBolcarPetrovič