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NPA Anchors vs Nimba Kwado — LFA First Division 2020

NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
FT
0 – 2
Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
5/30/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 22TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

NPA Anchors26%
×Draw23%
Nimba Kwado51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NPA Anchors
1.23
Nimba Kwado
1.83

Nimba Kwado creates 49% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 50 away

creates per match

NPA Anchors
1.17
Nimba Kwado
1.16

allows per match

NPA Anchors
2.50
Nimba Kwado
1.30

finishing

NPA Anchors+0.00on par
Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NPA Anchors ↓

Nimba Kwado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NPA Anchors or draw
49%
NPA Anchors or Nimba Kwado
77%
Draw or Nimba Kwado
74%

Winning margin

NPA Anchors wins by 2+
10%
Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

NPA Anchors 1+ goals
71%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
35%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
13%
Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
84%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
54%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
33%
Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NPA Anchors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NPA Anchors attack 1.17 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + NPA Anchors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

NPA Anchors scores more
26%
level
23%
Nimba Kwado scores more
51%

Nimba Kwado at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: NPA Anchors 0–2 Nimba Kwado

Nimba Kwado beat NPA Anchors 2-0 in LFA First Division on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.