Nimba Kwado 2–0 NPA Anchors: Result & Stats

Nimba Kwado

FT

2 – 0

NPA Anchors

11/26/2023

LFA First Division · Round 11Tomah Seh Floyd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nimba Kwado57%

×Draw25%

NPA Anchors18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba KwadoExpected goals in this matchNPA Anchors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.77

Nimba Kwado

1.60

NPA Anchors

0.77

Nimba Kwado creates 108% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

0.71

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Nimba Kwado

1.00

NPA Anchors

0.83

allows per match

Nimba Kwado

0.71

NPA Anchors

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba Kwado ↓

NPA Anchors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nimba Kwado or draw

82%

Nimba Kwado or NPA Anchors

75%

Draw or NPA Anchors

43%

Winning margin

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+

31%

NPA Anchors wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals

80%

Nimba Kwado 2+ goals

47%

Nimba Kwado 3+ goals

22%

NPA Anchors 1+ goals

54%

NPA Anchors 2+ goals

18%

NPA Anchors 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)

76%

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba Kwado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba Kwado attack 1.00 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Nimba Kwado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nimba Kwado scores more

57%

level

25%

NPA Anchors scores more

18%

Nimba Kwado at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff