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NPA Anchors vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
10/15/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 6Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

NPA Anchors33%
×Draw23%
Invincible Eleven43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NPA Anchors
1.46
Invincible Eleven
1.70

Invincible Eleven creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 51 away

creates per match

NPA Anchors
1.17
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

NPA Anchors
2.50
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

NPA Anchors+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NPA Anchors ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

NPA Anchors or draw
57%
NPA Anchors or Invincible Eleven
77%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
67%

Winning margin

NPA Anchors wins by 2+
15%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

NPA Anchors 1+ goals
77%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
43%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
18%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
51%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
43%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NPA Anchors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NPA Anchors attack 1.17 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + NPA Anchors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

NPA Anchors scores more
33%
level
23%
Invincible Eleven scores more
43%

Invincible Eleven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Invincible Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NPA Anchors vs Invincible Eleven

NPA Anchors and Invincible Eleven drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.