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Invincible Eleven vs NPA Anchors — LFA First Division 2020

Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
3/10/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 21Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Invincible Eleven52%
×Draw24%
NPA Anchors24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Invincible Eleven
1.71
NPA Anchors
1.09

Invincible Eleven creates 57% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 24 away

creates per match

Invincible Eleven
1.20
NPA Anchors
0.83

allows per match

Invincible Eleven
1.35
NPA Anchors
2.21

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par
NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

NPA Anchors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw
76%
Invincible Eleven or NPA Anchors
76%
Draw or NPA Anchors
48%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
28%
NPA Anchors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
51%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
24%
NPA Anchors 1+ goals
66%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
30%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
68%
NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more
52%
level
24%
NPA Anchors scores more
24%

Invincible Eleven at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Invincible Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Invincible Eleven 1–0 NPA Anchors

Invincible Eleven beat NPA Anchors 1-0 in LFA First Division on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.