Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NPA Anchors vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
FT
2 – 4
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
2/15/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 18Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

NPA Anchors25%
×Draw22%
Heaven Eleven53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NPA Anchors
1.33
Heaven Eleven
2.02

Heaven Eleven creates 52% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 60 away

creates per match

NPA Anchors
1.17
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

NPA Anchors
2.50
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

NPA Anchors+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NPA Anchors ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

NPA Anchors or draw
47%
NPA Anchors or Heaven Eleven
78%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
75%

Winning margin

NPA Anchors wins by 2+
11%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

NPA Anchors 1+ goals
74%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
38%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
15%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
87%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
60%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
32%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NPA Anchors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NPA Anchors attack 1.17 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + NPA Anchors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NPA Anchors scores more
25%
level
22%
Heaven Eleven scores more
53%

Heaven Eleven at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NPA Anchors vs Heaven Eleven

Heaven Eleven beat NPA Anchors 4-2 in LFA First Division on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.