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Heaven Eleven vs NPA Anchors — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
4 – 0
NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
10/28/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Heaven Eleven58%
×Draw22%
NPA Anchors20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.96
NPA Anchors
1.07

Heaven Eleven creates 83% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 24 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
NPA Anchors
0.83

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
NPA Anchors
2.21

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

NPA Anchors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
80%
Heaven Eleven or NPA Anchors
78%
Draw or NPA Anchors
42%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
34%
NPA Anchors wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
86%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
58%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
31%
NPA Anchors 1+ goals
66%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
29%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
74%
NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
58%
level
22%
NPA Anchors scores more
20%

Heaven Eleven at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Heaven Eleven 4–0 NPA Anchors

Heaven Eleven beat NPA Anchors 4-0 in LFA First Division on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.