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Nový Jičín vs Kostelec na Hané — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
6/7/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 29Stadion TJ Nový Jičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nový Jičín41%
×Draw25%
Kostelec na Hané34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nový Jičín
1.53
Kostelec na Hané
1.36

Nový Jičín creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nový Jičín
0.93
Kostelec na Hané
0.93

allows per match

Nový Jičín
1.80
Kostelec na Hané
2.13

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par
Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Kostelec na Hané →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw
66%
Nový Jičín or Kostelec na Hané
75%
Draw or Kostelec na Hané
59%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+
20%
Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals
78%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
45%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
20%
Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
74%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
39%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
55%
Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 0.93 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Nový Jičín defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nový Jičín scores more
41%
level
25%
Kostelec na Hané scores more
34%

Nový Jičín at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nový Jičín vs Kostelec na Hané

Kostelec na Hané beat Nový Jičín 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Nový Jičín in Nový Jičín.