Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kostelec na Hané vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
11/5/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 14Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kostelec na Hané45%
×Draw22%
Nový Jičín33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostelec na Hané
2.00
Nový Jičín
1.70

Kostelec na Hané creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané
1.67
Nový Jičín
1.07

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané
2.33
Nový Jičín
2.33

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw
67%
Kostelec na Hané or Nový Jičín
78%
Draw or Nový Jičín
55%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
25%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
86%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
59%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
32%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
82%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
51%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
57%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + Nový Jičín defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Nový Jičín attack 1.07 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more
45%
level
22%
Nový Jičín scores more
33%

Kostelec na Hané at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kostelec na Hané will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Kostelec na Hané 2–0 Nový Jičín

Kostelec na Hané beat Nový Jičín 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Hrište Kostelec na Hané in Kostelec na Hané.