Nový Jičín 2–0 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Nový Jičín

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HFK Olomouc

5/12/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 25Stadion TJ Nový Jičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nový Jičín42%

×Draw23%

HFK Olomouc34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nový JičínExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.50

Nový Jičín

1.69

HFK Olomouc

1.50

Nový Jičín creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

0.93

creates per match

1.21

1.80

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Nový Jičín

0.93

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Nový Jičín

1.80

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw

66%

Nový Jičín or HFK Olomouc

77%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

58%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+

22%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals

82%

Nový Jičín 2+ goals

50%

Nový Jičín 3+ goals

24%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

78%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

44%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)

55%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 0.93 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Nový Jičín defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nový Jičín scores more

42%

level

23%

HFK Olomouc scores more

34%

Nový Jičín at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff