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HFK Olomouc vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
10/8/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 10Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HFK Olomouc50%
×Draw23%
Nový Jičín27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HFK Olomouc
1.82
Nový Jičín
1.29

HFK Olomouc creates 41% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

HFK Olomouc
1.31
Nový Jičín
1.07

allows per match

HFK Olomouc
1.52
Nový Jičín
2.33

finishing

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFK Olomouc ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

HFK Olomouc or draw
73%
HFK Olomouc or Nový Jičín
77%
Draw or Nový Jičín
50%

Winning margin

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
27%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
84%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
54%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
27%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
72%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
37%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
65%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFK Olomouc at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFK Olomouc attack 1.31 + Nový Jičín defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.82

Nový Jičín attack 1.07 + HFK Olomouc defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HFK Olomouc scores more
50%
level
23%
Nový Jičín scores more
27%

HFK Olomouc at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HFK Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: HFK Olomouc 0–1 Nový Jičín

Nový Jičín beat HFK Olomouc 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc in Olomouc.