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Nový Jičín vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
FT
7 – 1
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
10/23/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 13Stadion TJ Nový Jičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nový Jičín77%
×Draw13%
Heřmanice Slezská9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nový Jičín
3.01
Heřmanice Slezská
0.97

Nový Jičín creates 210% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nový Jičín
1.61
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Nový Jičín
1.47
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw
91%
Nový Jičín or Heřmanice Slezská
87%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
23%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+
58%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals
95%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
80%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
56%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
62%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
25%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
89%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 1.61 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.01

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Nový Jičín defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Nový Jičín scores more
77%
level
13%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
9%

Nový Jičín at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Nový Jičín 7–1 Heřmanice Slezská

Nový Jičín beat Heřmanice Slezská 7-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Nový Jičín in Nový Jičín.