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Heřmanice Slezská vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
6/11/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská23%
×Draw20%
Nový Jičín57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
1.44
Nový Jičín
2.33

Nový Jičín creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Nový Jičín
1.24

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Nový Jičín
1.87

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
43%
Heřmanice Slezská or Nový Jičín
80%
Draw or Nový Jičín
77%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
10%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
76%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
42%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
18%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
90%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
67%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
29%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.87 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Nový Jičín defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nový Jičín attack 1.24 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
23%
level
20%
Nový Jičín scores more
57%

Nový Jičín at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Heřmanice Slezská 1–3 Nový Jičín

Nový Jičín beat Heřmanice Slezská 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Heřmanice in Ostrava.