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Nový Jičín vs Dětmarovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
CANC
13:30
Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
4/4/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 14Stadion TJ Sokol Kunín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nový Jičín65%
×Draw18%
Dětmarovice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nový Jičín
2.58
Dětmarovice
1.29

Nový Jičín creates 100% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nový Jičín
1.61
Dětmarovice
1.11

allows per match

Nový Jičín
1.47
Dětmarovice
3.56

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par
Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Dětmarovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw
82%
Nový Jičín or Dětmarovice
82%
Draw or Dětmarovice
35%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+
43%
Dětmarovice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals
92%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
72%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
47%
Dětmarovice 1+ goals
72%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
37%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
79%
Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 1.61 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.58

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Nový Jičín defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nový Jičín scores more
65%
level
18%
Dětmarovice scores more
18%

Nový Jičín at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nový Jičín vs Dětmarovice — Match Preview

Nový Jičín face Dětmarovice on April 4, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Nový Jičín host Dětmarovice at Stadion TJ Sokol Kunín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.