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Dětmarovice vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
FT
6 – 0
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
8/8/20204. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dětmarovice43%
×Draw24%
Nový Jičín33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dětmarovice
1.69
Nový Jičín
1.46

Dětmarovice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dětmarovice
1.50
Nový Jičín
1.24

allows per match

Dětmarovice
1.67
Nový Jičín
1.87

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw
67%
Dětmarovice or Nový Jičín
76%
Draw or Nový Jičín
57%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+
22%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals
82%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
50%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
24%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
77%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
43%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
56%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.87 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Nový Jičín defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nový Jičín attack 1.24 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dětmarovice scores more
43%
level
24%
Nový Jičín scores more
33%

Dětmarovice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dětmarovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dětmarovice vs Nový Jičín

Dětmarovice beat Nový Jičín 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice in Dětmarovice.