Novosibirsk 1–0 Metallurg Lipetsk: Result & Stats

Novosibirsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Metallurg Lipetsk

7/16/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 1Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Novosibirsk51%

×Draw26%

Metallurg Lipetsk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovosibirskExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.92

Novosibirsk

1.53

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.92

Novosibirsk creates 66% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.56

creates per match

1.17

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Novosibirsk

1.56

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.17

allows per match

Novosibirsk

0.67

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw

77%

Novosibirsk or Metallurg Lipetsk

74%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

49%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

27%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

78%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

45%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

20%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

60%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

23%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

69%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.56 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Novosibirsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Novosibirsk scores more

51%

level

26%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

23%

Novosibirsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff