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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
11/11/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 18Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk33%
×Draw32%
Novosibirsk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.95
Novosibirsk
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.11
Novosibirsk
0.89

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.06
Novosibirsk
0.78

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
65%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Novosibirsk
68%
Draw or Novosibirsk
67%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
12%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
61%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
25%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
7%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
62%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
26%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
49%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.11 + Novosibirsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Novosibirsk attack 0.89 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
33%
level
32%
Novosibirsk scores more
35%

Novosibirsk at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Novosibirsk

Metallurg Lipetsk and Novosibirsk drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.