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Novosibirsk vs Avangard Kursk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
10/1/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 12Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Novosibirsk48%
×Draw29%
Avangard Kursk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novosibirsk
1.28
Avangard Kursk
0.80

Novosibirsk creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Novosibirsk
1.56
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

Novosibirsk
0.67
Avangard Kursk
1.00

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw
77%
Novosibirsk or Avangard Kursk
71%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
52%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+
22%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals
72%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
37%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
14%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
55%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
19%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
67%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.56 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Novosibirsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Novosibirsk scores more
48%
level
29%
Avangard Kursk scores more
23%

Novosibirsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novosibirsk vs Avangard Kursk

Novosibirsk beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Novosibirsk.