Novosibirsk 3–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Novosibirsk

FT

3 – 1

Avangard Kursk

3/8/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Novosibirsk48%

×Draw24%

Avangard Kursk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovosibirskExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Novosibirsk

1.71

Avangard Kursk

1.25

Novosibirsk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.17

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Novosibirsk

2.17

Avangard Kursk

1.00

allows per match

Novosibirsk

1.50

Avangard Kursk

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw

72%

Novosibirsk or Avangard Kursk

76%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

52%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

26%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

82%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

51%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

24%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

71%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

36%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

63%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 2.17 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Avangard Kursk attack 1.00 + Novosibirsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Novosibirsk scores more

48%

level

24%

Avangard Kursk scores more

28%

Novosibirsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff