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Novorizontino vs Tombense — Serie B 2018

Novorizontino
Novorizontino
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Tombense
Tombense
6/18/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 13Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Novorizontino56%
×Draw25%
Tombense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino
1.58
Tombense
0.80

Novorizontino creates 98% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 38 away

creates per match

Novorizontino
1.50
Tombense
0.74

allows per match

Novorizontino
0.86
Tombense
1.66

finishing

Novorizontino+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw
81%
Novorizontino or Tombense
75%
Draw or Tombense
44%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+
30%
Tombense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals
79%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
47%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
21%
Tombense 1+ goals
55%
Tombense 2+ goals
19%
Tombense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)
75%
Tombense (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.50 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tombense attack 0.74 + Novorizontino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Novorizontino scores more
56%
level
25%
Tombense scores more
19%

Novorizontino at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Novorizontino 1–3 Tombense

Tombense beat Novorizontino 3-1 in Serie B on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.