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Novorizontino vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Novorizontino
Novorizontino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
10/24/2021Serie CSerie C · Promotion Round - 4Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Novorizontino52%
×Draw34%
Tombense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino
1.06
Tombense
0.41

Novorizontino creates 159% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 59 away

creates per match

Novorizontino
0.83
Tombense
0.75

allows per match

Novorizontino
0.08
Tombense
1.29

finishing

Novorizontino+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw
86%
Novorizontino or Tombense
66%
Draw or Tombense
48%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+
22%
Tombense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals
65%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
29%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
9%
Tombense 1+ goals
34%
Tombense 2+ goals
6%
Tombense 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)
78%
Tombense (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.08 · 12 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 0.83 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Tombense attack 0.75 + Novorizontino defence 0.08 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Novorizontino scores more
52%
level
34%
Tombense scores more
14%

Novorizontino at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novorizontino 0 – 1 Tombense

Tombense beat Novorizontino 1-0 in Serie C on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.