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Novorizontino vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Novorizontino
Novorizontino
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Londrina
Londrina
7/19/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 18Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Novorizontino53%
×Draw24%
Londrina23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino
1.68
Londrina
1.01

Novorizontino creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Novorizontino
1.53
Londrina
1.10

allows per match

Novorizontino
0.92
Londrina
1.82

finishing

Novorizontino+0.14scores more
Londrina+0.30scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Londrina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw
77%
Novorizontino or Londrina
76%
Draw or Londrina
47%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+
29%
Londrina wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals
81%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
50%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
24%
Londrina 1+ goals
64%
Londrina 2+ goals
27%
Londrina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)
70%
Londrina (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.92 · 6 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.53 + Londrina defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Londrina attack 1.10 + Novorizontino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Novorizontino scores more
53%
level
24%
Londrina scores more
23%

Novorizontino at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novorizontino vs Londrina

Novorizontino beat Londrina 3-0 in Serie B on July 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.