Londrina 0–1 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Londrina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Novorizontino

11/18/2023

Serie B · Round 37Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Londrina38%

×Draw30%

Novorizontino32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.01

Londrina

1.13

Novorizontino

1.01

Londrina creates 12% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 86 away

1.24

creates per match

0.93

1.08

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Londrina

1.24

Novorizontino

0.93

allows per match

Londrina

1.08

Novorizontino

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

68%

Londrina or Novorizontino

70%

Draw or Novorizontino

62%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

16%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

68%

Londrina 2+ goals

31%

Londrina 3+ goals

11%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

64%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

27%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

54%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 106 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.24 + Novorizontino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Novorizontino attack 0.93 + Londrina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Londrina scores more

38%

level

30%

Novorizontino scores more

32%

Londrina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff