Novorizontino 1–0 Juventude: Result & Stats

Novorizontino

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude

César Martins 38'

4/22/2023

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Novorizontino56%

×Draw25%

Juventude19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovorizontinoExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.81

Novorizontino

1.61

Juventude

0.81

Novorizontino creates 99% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.69

creates per match

0.70

0.92

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Novorizontino

1.69

Juventude

0.70

allows per match

Novorizontino

0.92

Juventude

1.53

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Novorizontino-0.22scores less

Juventude+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw

81%

Novorizontino or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

44%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+

30%

Juventude wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals

80%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

48%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

22%

Juventude 1+ goals

56%

Juventude 2+ goals

19%

Juventude 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

75%

Juventude (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 19 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.53 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.69 + Juventude defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

Juventude attack 0.70 + Novorizontino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Novorizontino scores more

56%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

19%

Novorizontino at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Léo Vieira

Juventude · G

8.2

Match Events

19'

Nenê

38'

César Martins↳ Raul Prata

45+1'

Romercio

46'

Ricardinho← César Martins

46'

Zé Marcos← Ruan

48'

52'

56'

65'

69'

71'

Kelvyn← Mandaca

71'

Rafinha← Nenê

71'

Dani Bolt← Romércio

74'

Jádson

75'

Douglas Baggio← Marlon

75'

Jenison← Ronaldo

77'

Adriano Mina

77'

Robertinho← Reginaldo Lopes

81'

82'

87'

87'

88'

90+7'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NovorizontinoJuventude

Overview

47%Possession53%

25Total Shots9

6Corners5

21Fouls20

Shots

25Total Shots9

7On Target2

11Off Target6

7Blocked1

15Inside Box7

10Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

312Total Passes357

223Accurate Passes252

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

21Fouls20

11Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

0Offsides1