Juventude 1–0 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Juventude

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Novorizontino

Geovane 45+10' (OG)

8/3/2023

Serie B · Round 21Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Juventude43%

×Draw30%

Novorizontino27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.89

Juventude

1.20

Novorizontino

0.89

Juventude creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

1.25

creates per match

1.10

0.68

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Juventude

1.25

Novorizontino

1.10

allows per match

Juventude

0.68

Novorizontino

1.15

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Juventude-0.25scores less

Novorizontino-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

73%

Juventude or Novorizontino

70%

Draw or Novorizontino

57%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

19%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

70%

Juventude 2+ goals

34%

Juventude 3+ goals

12%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

59%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

22%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

61%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.15 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.25 + Novorizontino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Novorizontino attack 1.10 + Juventude defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Juventude scores more

43%

level

30%

Novorizontino scores more

27%

Juventude at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Thiago Couto

Juventude · G

7.9

Match Events

9'

Jádson

27'

Willean Lepu

43'

Renato SilveiraCard upgrade

44'

45+10'

45+6'

45'

45+10'

GeovaneOwn goal

46'

Matheus Vargas← Jádson

46'

Tite← Jean Irmer

46'

Romulo← Aylon

46'

Luis Fellipe← Douglas Baggio

46'

Jenison← Ronaldo

57'

Ruan← David da Hora

66'

Ruan

74'

Mandaca← Nenê

77'

Ricardinho

81'

Matheus Vargas

82'

Felipe Marques← Ricardinho

86'

Biel← Geovane

90+5'

Biel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeNovorizontino

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots12

1.68Expected Goals (xG)0.90

4Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target4

7Off Target7

4Blocked1

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

474Total Passes373

375Accurate Passes284

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Juventude vs Novorizontino

Juventude beat Novorizontino 1-0 in Serie B on August 3, 2023.

Goals: Geovane (45+10' o.g.).

Juventude controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.

Juventude vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Juventude vs Novorizontino