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Novorizontino vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Novorizontino
Novorizontino
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
7/7/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 16Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Novorizontino40%
×Draw26%
Atletico Goianiense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino
1.39
Atletico Goianiense
1.24

Novorizontino creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Novorizontino
1.53
Atletico Goianiense
1.55

allows per match

Novorizontino
0.92
Atletico Goianiense
1.24

finishing

Novorizontino+0.14scores more
Atletico Goianiense-0.55scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw
67%
Novorizontino or Atletico Goianiense
74%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
60%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals
75%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
40%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
16%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)
55%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.92 · 6 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.53 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.55 + Novorizontino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Novorizontino scores more
40%
level
26%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
33%

Novorizontino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Novorizontino 2–2 Atletico Goianiense

Novorizontino and Atletico Goianiense drew 2-2 in Serie B on July 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.