Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Novorizontino

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Novorizontino

5/4/2025

Serie B · Round 6Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Atletico Goianiense44%

×Draw26%

Novorizontino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.16

Atletico Goianiense

1.45

Novorizontino

1.16

Atletico Goianiense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.58

creates per match

1.25

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.58

Novorizontino

1.25

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.07

Novorizontino

1.31

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.41scores less

Novorizontino-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

70%

Atletico Goianiense or Novorizontino

74%

Draw or Novorizontino

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

21%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

42%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

18%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

69%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

32%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

59%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.58 + Novorizontino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Novorizontino attack 1.25 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

44%

level

26%

Novorizontino scores more

30%

Atletico Goianiense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff