Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Novorizontino U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
Enzo Rocha 65'
Pedro Balotelli 39'
Victor Gabriel 32'
Gustavo Wallison 54'
9/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 6Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Novorizontino U2059%
×Draw20%
Botafogo SP U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
2.22
Botafogo SP U20
1.24

Novorizontino U20 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.73
Botafogo SP U20
1.67

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.81
Botafogo SP U20
1.71

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
79%
Novorizontino U20 or Botafogo SP U20
80%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
41%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
37%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
89%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
65%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
38%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
71%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
35%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.22

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
59%
level
20%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
21%

Novorizontino U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Victor Gabriel
39'
Pedro Balotelli
54'
Gustavo Wallison
65'
Enzo Rocha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novorizontino U20 3 – 1 Botafogo SP U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Botafogo SP U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on September 14, 2024.

Goals: Victor Gabriel (32'), Pedro Balotelli (39'), Gustavo Wallison (54'), Enzo Rocha (65').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.