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Botafogo SP U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
Thalles 64'
H. Pedro 85'
Hector Xoxo 53'
8/20/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 1Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Botafogo SP U2043%
×Draw23%
Novorizontino U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
1.70
Novorizontino U20
1.50

Botafogo SP U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
2.48
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
0.92
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
66%
Botafogo SP U20 or Novorizontino U20
77%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
57%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
22%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
82%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
51%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
24%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
78%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
44%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.70

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
43%
level
23%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
34%

Botafogo SP U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
Hector Xoxo
64'
Thalles
73'
85'
H. Pedro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Botafogo SP U20 1–2 Novorizontino U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Botafogo SP U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on August 20, 2024.

Goals: Hector Xoxo (53'), Thalles (64'), H. Pedro (85').

The match was played at Estádio Santa Cruz in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.