Novohrad Lučenec vs Liptovský Hrádok

Novohrad Lučenec

CANC

15:00

Liptovský Hrádok

5/29/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 25Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Novohrad Lučenec64%

×Draw20%

Liptovský Hrádok17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novohrad LučenecExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Hrádok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.03

Novohrad Lučenec

2.21

Liptovský Hrádok

1.03

Novohrad Lučenec creates 115% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 22 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Novohrad Lučenec

1.57

Liptovský Hrádok

1.00

allows per match

Novohrad Lučenec

1.06

Liptovský Hrádok

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novohrad Lučenec ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Novohrad Lučenec or draw

83%

Novohrad Lučenec or Liptovský Hrádok

80%

Draw or Liptovský Hrádok

36%

Winning margin

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

41%

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

89%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

65%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

38%

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals

64%

Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals

28%

Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

79%

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novohrad Lučenec at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.57 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

64%

level

20%

Liptovský Hrádok scores more

17%

Novohrad Lučenec at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Novohrad Lučenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff