Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Liptovský Hrádok vs Novohrad Lučenec — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
FT
3 – 3
Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
10/4/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 10Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok48%
×Draw23%
Novohrad Lučenec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
1.86
Novohrad Lučenec
1.43

Liptovský Hrádok creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Novohrad Lučenec
1.47

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Novohrad Lučenec
2.03

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
70%
Liptovský Hrádok or Novohrad Lučenec
77%
Draw or Novohrad Lučenec
52%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
26%
Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
84%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
55%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
28%
Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
76%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
42%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
62%
Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.86

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.47 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
48%
level
23%
Novohrad Lučenec scores more
30%

Liptovský Hrádok at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Liptovský Hrádok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Liptovský Hrádok 3–3 Novohrad Lučenec

Liptovský Hrádok and Novohrad Lučenec drew 3-3 in 3. liga - Center on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok in Liptovský Hrádok.