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Novohrad Lučenec vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
FT
1 – 0
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
9/11/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 7Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Novohrad Lučenec67%
×Draw19%
Liptovská Štiavnica14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novohrad Lučenec
2.22
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.90

Novohrad Lučenec creates 147% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 23 away

creates per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.57
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.06
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novohrad Lučenec ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Novohrad Lučenec or draw
86%
Novohrad Lučenec or Liptovská Štiavnica
81%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
33%

Winning margin

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
43%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
89%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
65%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
38%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
59%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
23%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
83%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novohrad Lučenec at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.57 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.22

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Novohrad Lučenec scores more
67%
level
19%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
14%

Novohrad Lučenec at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Novohrad Lučenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Novohrad Lučenec 1–0 Liptovská Štiavnica

Novohrad Lučenec beat Liptovská Štiavnica 1-0 in 3. liga - Center on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lučenec.