Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Liptovská Štiavnica vs Novohrad Lučenec — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
FT
6 – 2
Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
8/16/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 3Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica44%
×Draw22%
Novohrad Lučenec34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.92
Novohrad Lučenec
1.67

Liptovská Štiavnica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.82
Novohrad Lučenec
1.47

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.86
Novohrad Lučenec
2.03

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par
Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw
66%
Liptovská Štiavnica or Novohrad Lučenec
78%
Draw or Novohrad Lučenec
56%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
24%
Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
85%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
57%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
30%
Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
81%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
50%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
56%
Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.47 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
44%
level
22%
Novohrad Lučenec scores more
34%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liptovská Štiavnica vs Novohrad Lučenec

Liptovská Štiavnica beat Novohrad Lučenec 6-2 in 3. liga - Center on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica in Liptovská Štiavnica.