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Novohrad Lučenec vs Lipany — 3. liga - East 2020

Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Lipany
Lipany
6/1/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 29Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Novohrad Lučenec35%
×Draw26%
Lipany39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novohrad Lučenec
1.28
Lipany
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 80 away

creates per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.11
Lipany
1.57

allows per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.16
Lipany
1.45

finishing

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par
Lipany+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novohrad Lučenec ↓

Lipany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Novohrad Lučenec or draw
61%
Novohrad Lučenec or Lipany
74%
Draw or Lipany
65%

Winning margin

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
15%
Lipany wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
72%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
37%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
14%
Lipany 1+ goals
74%
Lipany 2+ goals
39%
Lipany 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
47%
Lipany (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novohrad Lučenec at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Lipany away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.11 + Lipany defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lipany attack 1.57 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Novohrad Lučenec scores more
35%
level
26%
Lipany scores more
39%

Lipany at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Novohrad Lučenec 1–4 Lipany

Lipany beat Novohrad Lučenec 4-1 in 3. liga - East on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lučenec.