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Lipany vs Novohrad Lučenec — 3. liga - East 2020

Lipany
Lipany
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
11/4/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 14Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lipany69%
×Draw18%
Novohrad Lučenec13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lipany
2.34
Novohrad Lučenec
0.91

Lipany creates 157% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lipany
2.76
Novohrad Lučenec
0.95

allows per match

Lipany
0.87
Novohrad Lučenec
1.93

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par
Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lipany or draw
87%
Lipany or Novohrad Lučenec
82%
Draw or Novohrad Lučenec
31%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+
46%
Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals
90%
Lipany 2+ goals
67%
Lipany 3+ goals
41%
Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
60%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
23%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)
84%
Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.34

Novohrad Lučenec attack 0.95 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lipany scores more
69%
level
18%
Novohrad Lučenec scores more
13%

Lipany at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lipany vs Novohrad Lučenec

Lipany beat Novohrad Lučenec 3-0 in 3. liga - East on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lipany.