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Novo Hamburgo vs Hercílio Luz — Serie D 2018

Novo Hamburgo
Novo Hamburgo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hercílio Luz
Hercílio Luz
6/8/2024Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio do Vale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Novo Hamburgo34%
×Draw29%
Hercílio Luz37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novo Hamburgo
1.07
Hercílio Luz
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Novo Hamburgo
1.26
Hercílio Luz
0.79

allows per match

Novo Hamburgo
1.47
Hercílio Luz
0.89

finishing

Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par
Hercílio Luz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novo Hamburgo ↓

Hercílio Luz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Novo Hamburgo or draw
63%
Novo Hamburgo or Hercílio Luz
71%
Draw or Hercílio Luz
66%

Winning margin

Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+
13%
Hercílio Luz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals
66%
Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals
29%
Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals
9%
Hercílio Luz 1+ goals
68%
Hercílio Luz 2+ goals
31%
Hercílio Luz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)
48%
Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novo Hamburgo at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Hercílio Luz away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novo Hamburgo attack 1.26 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Hercílio Luz attack 0.79 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Novo Hamburgo scores more
34%
level
29%
Hercílio Luz scores more
37%

Hercílio Luz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hercílio Luz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novo Hamburgo vs Hercílio Luz

Novo Hamburgo and Hercílio Luz drew 1-1 in Serie D on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Vale in Novo Hamburgo, Rio Grande do Sul.