Hercílio Luz 1–0 Novo Hamburgo: Result & Stats

Hercílio Luz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Novo Hamburgo

5/13/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hercílio Luz48%

×Draw29%

Novo Hamburgo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hercílio LuzExpected goals in this matchNovo Hamburgo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.76

Hercílio Luz

1.27

Novo Hamburgo

0.76

Hercílio Luz creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.32

creates per match

0.78

0.74

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Hercílio Luz

1.32

Novo Hamburgo

0.78

allows per match

Hercílio Luz

0.74

Novo Hamburgo

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hercílio Luz+0.00on par

Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz ↓

Novo Hamburgo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz or draw

78%

Hercílio Luz or Novo Hamburgo

71%

Draw or Novo Hamburgo

52%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz wins by 2+

22%

Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz 1+ goals

72%

Hercílio Luz 2+ goals

36%

Hercílio Luz 3+ goals

14%

Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals

53%

Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals

18%

Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)

69%

Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Novo Hamburgo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz attack 1.32 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Novo Hamburgo attack 0.78 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hercílio Luz scores more

48%

level

29%

Novo Hamburgo scores more

22%

Hercílio Luz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hercílio Luz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff