Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd — Super Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 55+ matches
Novi Pazar43%
IMT Novi Beograd32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Novi Pazar creates 21% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Novi Pazar ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches
IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52
IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Novi Pazar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Novi Pazar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Novi Pazar host IMT Novi Beograd on Sunday, 3 November 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2018/2019 season.
Super Liga: Novi Pazar 3–1 IMT Novi Beograd
Novi Pazar beat IMT Novi Beograd 3-1 in Super Liga on November 3, 2024.
Goals: A. Adeshina (25'), A. Ljajić (34'), M. Jović (38'), R. Antwi (45').
IMT Novi Beograd controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 13.
The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.