IMT Novi Beograd 2–3 Novi Pazar: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Novi Pazar

O. Lebi 62'

K. Campbell 49'

I. Davidovic 51'

S. Stanisavljevic 40'

M. Malekinusic 24' (pen)

12/7/2025

Super Liga · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd42%

×Draw26%

Novi Pazar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchNovi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.18

IMT Novi Beograd

1.42

Novi Pazar

1.18

IMT Novi Beograd creates 20% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 114 away

1.21

creates per match

1.07

1.28

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

Novi Pazar

1.07

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

Novi Pazar

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Novi Pazar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

69%

IMT Novi Beograd or Novi Pazar

74%

Draw or Novi Pazar

58%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

20%

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

76%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

41%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

17%

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

69%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

33%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

58%

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

42%

level

26%

Novi Pazar scores more

31%

IMT Novi Beograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Lukovic

IMT Novi Beograd · M

7.3

Match Events

24'

M. MalekinusicPenalty

40'

S. Stanisavljevic↳ Z. Alilovic

46'

D. Zagar← N. Krstic

46'

K. Campbell← V. Kiankaulua

49'

K. Campbell↳ L. Lukovic

51'

I. Davidovic↳ M. Malekinusic

55'

Matija Malekinušić

62'

S. Karamoko← O. Thill

62'

O. Lebi↳ V. Novicic

64'

Matija Malekinušić

64'

Matija Malekinušić

71'

F. Backulja← S. Togbe

71'

S. Alic← Z. Alilovic

79'

Ismael CasasPenalty cancelled

82'

E. Opara← D. Sadi

86'

C. Keita← M. Jevtic

89'

L. Bijelovic← S. Stanisavljevic

90+1'

M. Jovic← L. Lukovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTNovi

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots12

1.07Expected Goals (xG)1.95

3Corners2

12Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

470Total Passes259

349Accurate Passes141

74%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0